Seniors Housing Weekly Update -- Fourth Quarter Earnings
February 5, 2013
Fourth Quarter Earnings
Fourth quarter and year-end earnings reports will be upon us starting next week, and while the numbers will be the numbers, it will be the tone that will matter. The most bullish will be the REITs, and why not? They had a great year in 2012, shareholders are loving them, capital is cheap and they are the go-to capital provider that is learning to get increasingly creative. The seniors housing providers will be upbeat, but not as much as the REITs. Other than some recent news, the economy has seemed to be improving, but it will be interesting to hear any forecasts on occupancy through the end of the year, and we hope the equity analysts ask if discounting is largely over and what the impact of the worst flu season in 10 years has been. On the skilled nursing side, this is where tone will be important, because the sector has been beat up for 18 months, and with therapy cuts and other Medicare cuts, it has been a depressing environment. Earnings forecasts will be lowered, if they haven’t already done so, and share prices will remain in limbo. But listen for the tone as they talk about the future.