Seniors Housing Weekly Update - Seniors Housing Occupancy Holding Firm
April 15, 2014
Seniors Housing Occupancy Holding Firm
In a few weeks we will start to hear from the few remaining publicly traded seniors housing companies about how they fared in the first quarter. But after the cold and unusually snowy winter, which had to result in some move-in delays in the northern half of the country, balanced by a much milder flu season than expected, occupancy trends appear to have survived winter’s wrath. According to the NIC MAP data, for the most part occupancy was flat from the fourth quarter last year to the first quarter this year, when there is usually a decline. The other good news is that first quarter 2014 occupancy overall was about 65 to 75 basis points higher than a year ago, so there is some longer term momentum building up. The market will need it if all the assisted living and memory care properties that are being discussed get built, and some will not. But trailing 12 month memory care construction starts as a percentage of supply are almost three times higher than they are for assisted living, and six times higher than for independent living. And all we hear about is new memory care everywhere. While they do tend to fill up faster, we are not sure for how long.