Seniors Housing Weekly Update - Senior Care History Repeating Itself
September 16, 2014
September 16, 2014. 60 Seconds with Steve Monroe. What happened in the 1960s, the 1990s and 2000s have some uncanny parallels to today's seniors housing and care market....
Senior Care History Repeating Itself
As you may be aware by now, we have completed the first of three 50th anniversary issues of The SeniorCare Investor. It has been fun and fascinating to look back in time, over 50 years, and see the uncanny parallels between what was happening then and now. From the 1960s a story on how Medicare would result in a new kind of nursing facility, catering to the short-term rehabilitative patient, a business model on steroids today, to a story on skilled nursing capitation in the 1990s, which failed miserably, but that has some similarities to the ACO market of today. Reading stories about aggressive and abundant capital fueling the acquisition binges of the late 1990s and mid-2000s reminds me of what causes bull markets to run their course, and why they always come to an end. Is today’s bull market different? We’ll see. And then there was the development boom for assisted living in the 1990s, which fortunately has not been matched yet today. The big difference this time is the large number of newcomers who weren’t around the last time to learn from those mistakes.