April 21, 2026 – 60 Seconds with Ben Swett: Sticks and Bricks in ’26?
Interest in seniors housing development is rising, suggesting the long-forecast “Sticks and Bricks in ’26” may partly materialize. While a boom is unlikely, architects report strong demand even as projects lag due to costly debt and uncertain returns. High acquisition prices still favor buying over building, but record per-unit sales could spur more development activity.
Transcript
The talk around new development is getting a lot more serious in the seniors housing industry, leading us to wonder if our 2024 prediction of “Sticks and Bricks in ‘26” may actually come true, somewhat. Back then, we may have thought that interest rates would have come down a bit more by now, but that the FOMO of getting involved in seniors housing combined with rising prices in the M&A market would kick off a new building boom. We doubt there will be any “boom” in 2026, but the signs are there for increased activity. A couple of architects we spoke to at NIC said they were busier than ever, even if most builders are not putting as many shovels in dirt as they would like.
The main things holding investors back from new development has been sourcing debt for projects and not seeing enough high purchase prices to justify the development and fill-up costs, as well as their ultimate exits. For the Class-A, well performing properties, it is still mostly cheaper to buy rather than build. But we saw another record get broken last week on a price-per-unit basis, so the comps above $800,000, $900,000 or $1 million per unit are building up. And I’ll have just the right institutional investors to ask about this topic on our April 23rd webinar. So register here to hear what they have to say.
Institutional M&A Strategies
Limited new development and strong demographics have sparked a race among investors to grow seniors housing portfolios via M&A. Fierce bidding is pushing prices up and cap rates down, with REITs and returning funds competing for top assets. A BLUEPRINT sponsored webinar will explore what’s driving strategies, cap rate trends and impacts across the market.
Talking Construction and Cap Rates in Nashville
Spring NIC in Nashville drew record attendance and strong optimism, despite macro concerns. Deal flow is robust, pointing to another M&A record in 2026. Rising Class-A pricing may revive construction, while intense buyer demand is pushing some cap rates below 6%, especially as investors compete with REITs for top assets.
Burning Questions for NIC Attendees
Heading into the 2026 Spring NIC conference, optimism is high as occupancy, margins, liquidity and values rise across seniors housing and SNFs. Key questions remain on pricing for Class-A vs. value-add assets, future development, and whether scalable middle-market solutions or government support will emerge.
