September 23, 2025 – 60 Seconds with Steve: The Future of Seniors Housing
Five years after COVID’s onset, seniors housing feels both unchanged and transformed. Optimism mirrors 2013–2017 with rising values, eager investors, and competitive lenders, but new development lags. With 2030’s boomer wave looming, big questions remain—what will they want, afford, and choose to pay for?
Transcript
Five years ago, at the onset of the COVID pandemic, I wrote a long white paper on the future of seniors housing based on what was happening in the Spring of 2020. The future was questionable. Now, five years later, it seems as if nothing has changed, and everything has changed.
I had to miss my first Fall NIC in 35 years, but I heard there was a lot of talk about the future and what may happen, and that the “feel” today was much like the post-recession years of 2013 to 2017. Everything looking up, values rising, investors jumping in, sentiment at a recent peak, lenders very competitive, and so on. The only thing missing today compared with back then is the lack of new development.
So, since we are midway through this decade, with the pandemic in the rearview mirror, I thought it might be time to take another look at the “Future of Seniors Housing.” But as I have been thinking about it, sitting in my rocking chair, I just don’t think it is going to be Bob Kramer’s vision of the future, as nice as that would be.
We have all been waiting for 2030, when the first boomers turn 85. But do we really know what they want? Do we really know what they can afford? Do we really know if they will pay for it? Do we really know what will be offered? While it should be the best of times for seniors housing, it feels like something is missing. Stay tuned, and if you have any ideas you would like to share, please let me know. And now, let me get back into my rocking chair.
Getting Realistic with New Development
The NIC Fall Conference buzzed with optimism for record Q4 M&A, fueled by LevinPro’s updated valuation tool. Yet talk of middle-market senior housing remains stalled by high build costs and limited returns, leaving many to expect government aid or active adult models as the only viable path forward.
Heading Down to Austin
We’re heading to Austin for the NIC Fall Conference, where optimism is high amid strong M&A activity, improving capital markets, and hopes for a rate cut. With steady operating gains and rising property values, more sellers may enter the market, fueling higher prices and potential record per-unit values.
An Update to Our Valuation Statistics
Deal activity in 2025 shows value-add dominance, some Class-A sales, steady liquidity, and slightly lower cap rates, boosting values. Watch our Aug 28 webinar, A Mid-Year Valuation Stats Update, for fresh LevinPro LTC data and expert insights on market trends, buyers, and M&A strategies into 2026.
