September 30, 2025 – 60 Seconds with Ben Swett: Will Q4 Set Records?
Q4 is set to be record-breaking for seniors housing M&A, with optimism high among buyers and brokers. 2025 already surpasses past deal volumes, hitting 70 deals in September alone, with annualized totals tracking 750–840, far above 2024’s 716 record. Spending is also on pace to exceed last year’s highs.
Transcript
Happy fourth quarter everybody, and it should be a record-breaking one with all of the transaction pipelines we are aware of. Of course, deals have to close, and some will inevitably be kicked to Q1. But there is enough optimism among buyers, lenders, operators and certainly the brokers that dealmaking activity should hit new heights in the coming months.
We are already at a record-breaking M&A volume in 2025, with a sensational summer culminating in September hitting a 2025 monthly high with 70 deals announced, and counting. Only two other months have ever surpassed 70 deals, and they were in 2024. On an annualized basis, we would hit 840 deals at that level. And based on the last three quarters annualized, we are at 750 deals for 2025. The previous record was 716 deals in 2024. The next highest? That would be 561 deals in 2022. So we are truly in a different market now. Total spending in 2025 is also already exceeding calendar-year 2024. So a few more big portfolio deals that we know are in the works would potentially see 2025 reach post-pandemic spending highs, too.
The Future of Seniors Housing
Five years after COVID’s onset, seniors housing feels both unchanged and transformed. Optimism mirrors 2013–2017 with rising values, eager investors, and competitive lenders, but new development lags. With 2030’s boomer wave looming, big questions remain—what will they want, afford, and choose to pay for?
Getting Realistic with New Development
The NIC Fall Conference buzzed with optimism for record Q4 M&A, fueled by LevinPro’s updated valuation tool. Yet talk of middle-market senior housing remains stalled by high build costs and limited returns, leaving many to expect government aid or active adult models as the only viable path forward.
Heading Down to Austin
We’re heading to Austin for the NIC Fall Conference, where optimism is high amid strong M&A activity, improving capital markets, and hopes for a rate cut. With steady operating gains and rising property values, more sellers may enter the market, fueling higher prices and potential record per-unit values.
